S&P500 is losing ground
Forecast for week 8 – 12 June:
According to results of the week, yield of the US treasuries grew by 28 p. till the level 2.40%, which points out growth of inflation expectations and will support gold in the first half of the week. Though growth of quotations shall be used for short positions. Positive data on labor market, received in May, fueled investors' confidence in future toughening of monetary policy by FOMC. On Friday, yield of the 2 years' US treasuries reached a new High for the last 5 years and it proves the above-mentioned the best. So, we can expect that ascending tendency for the US currency will continue. That will put a pressure on gold, because its cost is nominated in US dollars. This week we may open Sell positions on growth of quotations to the area of 1178/1186 and take profit on the point 1159.
XPT/USD and XPD/USD:
In the first half of the week, metals of platinum group can demonstrate an ascending tendency as inflation expectations grow in the USA, Eurozone, Great Britain and Japan. In May, sales of cars in the USA grew. Though in the second half of the week, you should expect continuation of descending tendency as US dollar will get consolidated. This week we may open Sell positions on XPT/USD on growth of quotations to the area of 1112/1129 and take profit on the point 1087 and Sell positions on XPD/USD on growth of quotations to the area of 761/770 take profit on the point 745.
This week bears will dominate on the US stock market again. Friday's positive data on employment in Non-farm sector as well the data on average salary allow to expect a strong report on retail sales that is to be released on June 11. Growth of energies' in April points increase of PPI for May scheduled on June 12. As we approach Fed Reserve's meeting on June 17, positive macroeconomic statistics will enhance investors' expectations of increase of rates of federal funds. Yield of the 2 years' US treasuries has reached a new 4 years' High and this week we may expect a new growth. In its turn, this factor works against stock market, because toughening of monetary policy leads to deterioration of corporations' financial figures and investors have to get rid of securities. This week we may open Sell positions on growth of quotations to the area of 2100/2110 and take profit on the point 2079.
Alexander GoryachevAnalyst of «FreshForex» company
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