Forecast for the week September 4th through September 8th:
During the first week of September, I expect a gold price decline against the backdrop of the strengthening of the US dollar. There is a strong reverse correlation between price quotations of the gold and the dollar, and this factor will have a strong impact on the quotes. The US dollar is now demonstrating correctional growth against its competitors, after the USDX has hit its 2-year low. Investors record profits on short positions in the dollar for two reasons. First, the index of business activity in industry from ISM in August showed strong growth, which indicates the acceleration of GDP growth. Secondly, on September 20, the Federal Reserve System will hold a meeting where the regulator can set the date of the beginning of the reduction of its balance, which can cause the growth of the US dollar. Trading signals: Sell 1325/1340 and take profit 1300.
A mixed background is formed for the coming week. On the one hand, it is possible to expect the rise in quotations up to the August high (53.51) against the backdrop of the production cut in the United States due to Hurricane Harvey, which has made inoperative the refineries with the capacity of more than 3 million barrels per day, or 16% of the total capacities of the country. On the other hand, we can expect a decline in oil prices against the backdrop of the strengthening of the US currency, as oil and the US dollar move in different directions. Speculators on American commodity exchanges would favored to cut prices: the net volume of long positions has been decreasing for four weeks in a row, with the highest volume recorded during the last week (79.5 thousand contracts). Trading signals: flat 52,00-53,51.
We open long positions in the expectation of updating the historic maximum (2492.5). Macroeconomic statistics from the US on CB's consumer confidence index, as well as PMI ISM of the producing sector indicates that in the period from July to September we can expect a higher quarterly GDP growth. In this context we can expect the growth of corporate profits, which traditionally has a positive impact on stock prices. The dynamics of positions of large speculators also confirms a strong uptrend. According to the data of the CFTC for the last week the number of net long positions increased by 57.6 thousand contracts. Trading signals: Buy 2470/2455 and take profit 2492.