The pressure on the dollar keeps growing | 10 April 2015

Euro

Eurozone has not published interesting macroeconomic data. Therefore, dynamics will depend on the US statistics. The market will play out the US data release as namely the labor market report can clarify that we should expect from the Fed any steps towards the monetary policy tightening during this year.

The data had to come out significantly above expectations to make the market believe in the possibility of the interest rate increase for at least three quarters. However, the release showed the data much lower than it was expected: 126 000 jobs compared with expected 245 000. Against this background, bulls became more active and rose the euro.

Trading recommendations

We recommend to long to 1.1120-1.1140. If this level is overcome, the new target will be 1.1300-1.1320.

Pound

The UK has not published interesting statistics. Most markets were closed due to Good Friday. The pound is now going through difficult times as the country is waiting for the upcoming May elections which provoke a fairly high level of uncertainty. The NFP data influenced the pair dynamics. The employment number increased by 126,000 jobs in March after the revised growth towards a decrease by 264,000 in February. Extremely weak data supported the pair and targeted it for a growth to the level of 1.4900-1.4920.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long to 1.5000-1.5020. The second target is the level of 1.5150-1.5170.

Yen

The pair dollar/yen has not been able to develop an upward movement trying to reach the level of 121.00 amid the Non farm report that increased by 126,000 in March with a correction for seasonal variations. This is the slight increase in December of 2013. The market does not believe that the Fed will increase the interest rates in the short term. The yen strengthened significantly against the US dollar.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short to 117.95-118.15. Shall we overcome the first target the level of 117.00-117.20 will become the second one.