Low volatility and medium movement are expected
From a technical point of view we should expect the EUR/USD growth. The signal to enter the market can become the resistance levels 1.3824, 1.3846 and 1.3867 breakdown as well as the falling to a broken level 1.3700. The main target for the growth is the maximum 1.3905. We do not expect the pair to grow further as the current week won't have any significant fundamental news.
The selling is possible though it is risky. We can sell if the pair breaks the level 1.3789 down. Should the pair break the level it can fall further to 1.3670.
The south scenario may be considered as an alternative one but take into account as April 24 we expect the head of the European Central Bank performance. As shown from statistics all Draghi's words are currently aimed at the euro weakening although it is not significant for this basic data. This week we expect an entire block of news from Germany which may have a short-term impact on the exchange rate of the euro dollar.
From a technical point of view it is worth noting an extended bearish divergence forming on the 4-hour and daily timeframe. The shown divergence on the chart can show a medium and a long term depreciation of the pound/dollar despite the positive fundamental data from the United Kingdom. In addition, the pound/dollar decrease may be supported by the additional information from the UK retail sales and mortgages.
We can see the pair only if it breaks the possible support level 1.6765. The aim for the short-term decrease may become the level 1.6680 which can be broken down if we get the negative fundamental data from the UK.
However there are no signs for the pair reduction now. We can talk about the existing upward trend changing to a falling one only upon the 1.6700 level breakdown.
From a technical point of view, the ultimate goal for the growth is the resistance level 104.15. The opportunities to buy the pair will appear as after breaking the level 103.
The sales are only possible after a breakdown of the level 102.23.
The sell target can become the level of support 101.20.
Ruban SergeyAnalyst of «FreshForex» company
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