The dollar falls in the light of rising oil prices

The weather can distract players from Ukraine and China. The weather peak is expected on Tuesday, when the first of the four central banks is planning to organize the meeting - the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce changes in its monetary policy. The Bank of Canada will hold a meeting on Wednesday, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will meet on Thursday. Carl Weinberg, the chief international economist of High Frequency Economics in New York, suspects that all four central banks are "largely paralyzed and will not change its monetary policy."

The ECB as the Central Bank " may surprise us as the ECB is in uncharted waters now. While "no one can predict how ECB will react ", HFE expects that the bank's policy is likely to remain unchanged.

We expect a number of important news from the USA this week. The market's attention will be riveted on Monday to ISM manufacturing index for February release, the ISM index for the services sector and the February employment report publication on Friday.

The euro closed Friday at the 1.3807 that is at the upper range of the last week from the 1.3643 (Thursday) to the 1.3824 (Friday). The pair shot upwards after Friday’s preliminary data on inflation in the euro-zone, which raised questions about the prospect of the ECB monetary policy easing this week.

The British pound is unlikely to grow above 1.6810, we can see strong sales that limit its growth at the current level. We expect its return to 1.6660.

Yen can fall to 101. Breaking this level the pair will go to 100, that will last the correction. Shall the pair grow it will go to 103.00.


Ruban Sergey
Analyst of «FreshForex» company
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