Bullish rally in the oil market | 04 August 2023

#SP500:

The inflation outbreak is winding down quicker and with less pain for the labor markets than traders could have imagined just a year ago. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.2% last month after edging up 0.1% in May, the Commerce Department said. Food prices dipped 0.1% while the cost of energy products increased 0.6%. In the 12 months through June, the PCE price index advanced 3.0%. The U.S. central bank on last Wednesday raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to the 5.25%-5.50% range, a level last seen just prior to the 2007 housing market crash and which has not been consistently exceeded for about 22 years. Annual inflation is easing as last year's surge drops out of the calculations.

Trading recommendation: sell 4600 and take profit 4405.

#PG:

The Company reported fiscal year 2023 net sales of $82.0 billion, an increase of two percent versus the prior year. Organic sales, which exclude the impacts of foreign exchange and acquisitions and divestitures, increased seven percent. Diluted net earnings per share were $5.90, an increase of two percent versus prior year. Currency-neutral net EPS increased 11% versus the prior year EPS. The Company generated operating cash flow of $16.8 billion and net earnings of $14.7 billion for the fiscal year. Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 95%, which is calculated as operating cash flow less capital spending, as a percentage of net earnings. The Company returned over $16 billion of value to shareholders in fiscal 2023 via $9 billion in dividend payments and $7.4 billion of share repurchases.

Trading recommendation: buy 154.80 and take profit 157.58.

#WTI:

Oil prices rose notched a fifth straight week of gains as investors were optimistic that healthy demand and supply cuts will keep prices buoyant. Risk appetite in wider financial markets has been fueled by growing expectations that central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are nearing the end of policy tightening campaigns, boosting the outlook for global growth and energy demand. Bolstered by supply cuts from the OPEC+ alliance announced earlier this month, both oil benchmarks gained nearly 5% for the week - a fifth straight week of gains. The benchmarks are on track to gain over 13% for the month.

Trading recommendation: buy 79.10 and take profit 82.25.