The bullish rally in stock markets | 17 February 2023

#SP500:

The American Association of Individual Investors has surveyed its members each week with a simple question: “Do you feel the direction of the stock market over the next six months will be up (bullish), no change (neutral) or down (bearish)?” The bullish, bearish, and neutral percentage readings provide a temperature gauge for risk appetite among investors. Bullish sentiment has been trending higher since the start of the year, lifting the bullish percent from 20.5% at the beginning of the year to 37.5%. Historically, after these streaks end and bullish sentiment outpaces bearish sentiment, the S&P 500 has historically generated positive returns.

Trading recommendation: buy 4050 and take profit 4190.

#DAX30:

German inflation in January slowed to 9.2%, a five-month low for the country. Like previous months, the decline in the official inflation metric was from direct government support for household energy bills. Nevertheless, investors are likely seeing opportunities in Europe’s largest economy, allocating more assets into German debt. Unlike some of the emerging economies, Germany and other developed international countries are close to peak inflation rates. The European Central Bank believes the risks to both the inflation and growth outlooks are more balanced and the improved view on inflation sent Eurozone bond yields down.

Trading recommendation: buy 15156 and take profit 15700.

#WTI:

Oil prices rose, as Russia announced plans to reduce oil production next month after the West imposed price caps on the country's crude and fuel. Russia plans to reduce its crude oil production in March by 500,000 barrels per day, or about 5% of output, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said. Western nations have imposed restrictions, trying to choke off Russia's oil revenues in response to the country's actions in Ukraine. The production cut indicates that the European Union's recent price cap and ban on Russian oil products, which came into effect on Feb. 5, have had some impact. OPEC+ plans no action after Russia announced oil output cuts.

Trading recommendation: buy 77.50 and take profit 82.40.