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Bulls on the dollar will attack

04 April 2016, EUR/USD

The events we need to pay attention to today

7.30 am, GMT. United Kingdom: PMI index for the construction sector in March (the previous index was 54.2, forecast is 54.3).

7.00 am, GMT. Eurozone: the unemployment rate for February (the previous index was 10.3%; forecast is 10.3%).


The last Friday, bears run the first counterattack for the the past few trading days. Today I expect drop of quotations for three reasons. First, macroeconomic statistics from the US, which we received on April 1 is rather positive and the market will continue to use this impetus. Two strong figures: growth of the hourly salary by 0.28% and surge of the price index of the ISM manufacturing sector by 13 points to the level of 51.5%. Both indicators point to rise of inflation pressure. For the first time from October 2014, ISM manufacturing prices rose above 50%. In this regard, I expect rumors about a possible raise of the interest rate by FOMC in June this year. Second, the US stock market closed Friday in the "green zone", which will also put pressure on the Euro as a funding currency. Third, yield of 10-year German government bonds has dropped against its counterparts in the US and the UK, which makes investments in European assets less attractive. So, in the first half of the day we should opened Sell positions on growth of quotations to 1.1410/1.1445 and take profit at the level of 1.1350.

Alexander Goryachev
FreshForex Analyst
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