13 August 2015, EUR/USD
On the eve the American currency got into the sales wave – the USDX index of the dollar basket has finished the trading day on 96.35. The EUR/USD pair - on 1.05% by the sales on the european markets. Investors closed long-termed positions on the stock markets and transferred the funds to the obligation markets what support the euro demand. To the end of the day the GBP/USD pair gained 0.23% by the oil price stabilization. he United States Department of Energy has been reporting about the oil reserves reduction three weeks in a row, that makes the Brent consolidation near psychological level 50$/barrel. To the end of the day the USD/JPY pair lost 0.74% by the closing of the “carry trade” transactions because of the sales on the Japanese market.
The events we should pay attention to today:
02.50 Msc. Japan: The changes in the volume of orders on cars and facilities in June (the previous is 0.6%; the forecast is -4.9% м/м).
15.30 Msc. The USA: The changes in the volume of retail sales in July (the previous is -0.3%; the forecast is 0.5%).
15.30 Msc. The USA: The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in August (the previous is 270; the forecast is 272).
In the first half of the day the publication of important macroeconomic statistics is expected and within this we should pay attention to the dynamics of the debt market. The day before there was an expansion of the negative differential of governmental obligations in Germany and the US, which is a positive factor for the US currency. In this regard, investors may begin to take profits in part on long-termed positions, which will have some pressure on the single European currency. In the afternoon, the United States will publish the release of retail sales for July. Last week we received a positive data on car sales, which indicates a positive report on sales in retail sector. The positive dynamics of the labor market confirms this trend - unemployment in the United States was reduced till the pre-crisis levels. But we can not ignore the weak data on consumer confidence from the Conference Board - in July the index fell to its lowest level for the last 9 months indicating the low consumer activity. In this regard, we should not rely on the data output of the median forecasts better and this factor will not support the US dollar. You also can not forget that the single European currency for two days in a row ignores the weak macroeconomic statistics that indicates the presence of strong buyers on the market and in this regard the current trend is likely to continue, rather than to change the trend. Against this background, during the day the buy position should be opened on the decline of the quotations to 1.1135/1.1110 and fix the profit on 1.1185 . For today we can mark following levels: The support levels 1.1130 - 1.1096 and the resistance levels : 1.1216 -1.1096.
During the day, we should expect the flat trend development. On the one hand, the recently published release of labor market data disappointed by the weak data of salaries. The total score above a little worse than the consensus forecast, which together with the reduction in energy prices will contribute to a slowdown in inflation. The weak inflation is a negative factor for the currency, in this case for the British pound. The differential of short-term and long-term UK governmental obligations after the publication of data on the labor market showed the growth, which is the best proof of the negative impact of weak data on inflation. On the other hand, as it was noted earlier, the United States today can not please investors with strong data on retail sales, which also will not support "bulls". Against this background during the day we should expect for the flat in the corridor 1.5550 -1.5660. It is necessary to mark the following levels for the pound/dollar pair: the support levels: 1.5592 - 1.5551 and the resistance levels: 1.5625 – 1.5673.
In the early hours of the Asian trading session, you can expect the moderate growth to 124.40/124.65 by the correction in global stock markets. The day before there were significant sales in the leading markets and on the US market in the last hour of the trading session, investors closed the short-term positions. However, this short-term growth should be seen as an opportunity to build up positions. There are three reasons for this. Firstly, the continuing of the negative trend can be expected on the equity markets causing the Japanese yen demand as the funding currency. On the eve of the US stock market the utility sector was among the growth leaders, which traditionally refers to the number of "defensive sectors," and the financial sector was among the decline leaders. This dynamics directly points to the "bearish" trend and a low investors’ "appetite" to risk. Secondly, on the debt market we can see the modest spread reduction of government obligations in Japan and the US which is also good for "bears." Thirdly, as noted above, from the United States today we should not expect the release of data on retail sales better than the consensus-forecast which also will not support the US currency. Against this background, during the day Sell positions should be opened on the quotations growth in 124.40/124.65 and fix the profit on 123.65. It is necessary to mark following levels: the support levels: 124.12 – 123.74 and the resistance levels: 124.45 – 125.06.