13 March 2015, EUR/USD
The ECB incentive program continues to be the main cause of the pressure on the European currency which again fell against the dollar and other majors on Wednesday. But it slightly recovered at the yesterday’s trades. In February 2015 the France consumer price index rose by 0.7% after a decrease to 1.0% in January. The annual consumer price index fell again to -0.3% from -0.4% in January. According to the National calculation methodology, the Germany consumer prices rose by 0.9% compared to the previous month and increased by 0.1% on the annual basis.
The pair broke through the support near 1.0610-1.0630. After a short-term consolidation the pir rebounded upwards and taste the resistance level of 1.0630-1.0650. The downtrend remains in force as well as the possible long-term target at the level of 1.0000, but due to the strong euro undervalued it is possible profit taking at the current levels.
The support levels are 1.0340-1.0360, and the resistance levels are 1.0630-1.0650.
MACD is in a negative territory.
However, the risks of the 1.0340-1.0360 breakthrough are preserved.
The British pound also came under pressure and has fallen against the dollar (over 100 points). The house price index rose to 14% against 7% while it was forecasted a decrease by 6%. The UK trade balance for January was -8.4 billion pounds, traders expected the deficit reduction to 9.7 billion from the previous -10.2 billion pounds.
The pound/dollar brief consolidation was ended with the support breakthrough around 1.5020-1.5040, then it continued to fall and the pair broke through the psychological level of 1.4980-1.5000. It found the support at the level of 1.4880-1.4900 from which the pair rebounded to the resistance around 1.5000-1.5020. Then the pair sharply fell and tested the support level of 1.4830-1.4850.
The support levels: 1.4830-1.4850 and the resistance levels: 1.4900-1.4920.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.
The level of 1.4830-1.4850 breakthrough suggests a fall towards 1.4750-1.4770. It is possible the bears’ activation on the rebound to 1.5000-1.5020.
The Japanese yen fell against the dollar, but significantly less than the European majors. There is the optimism growth in the Japan stock market where the Nikkei rose by 1.4%. Japan: 1 square. 2015. According to the Bank of Japan survey, the business index increased to 2.4 from 8.1. The service sector business activity index turned out to be better than it was expected 1.4% against the previous 0.00, earlier it was expected increase by 0.6%.
The US dollar with the Japanese yen failed to break through the resistance near 121.30-122.60 which increases the risk of the support breakthrough around 120.00-120.20.
The support levels: 121.10-121.30, and the resistance levels: 122.40-122.60.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.
If we lose the level of 120.00-120.20 it will signal about the downward correction resumption. While the pair is trading above this level, the chances for a continued growth will be preserved.