The EUR/USD is trading without changes | 24 February 2015

Euro

The positive information on the Greece issue has returned optimism to the market and the single currency has blocked all previously incurred losses against the US dollar. The Germany IFO economic expectations indicator rose up to 102.5 in February from the previous 102.0. The Germany IFO Business climate index rose up to 106.8 in February from the previous 106.7 while it was expected 107.7.

The situation within the pair has not changed. The pair continued the range consolidation, limited by the resistance at the level of 1.1440-1.1460 and by the support near 1.1320-1.1340.

The support levels are 1.1200-1.1220, and the resistance levels are 1.1340-1.1360.

MACD is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

A rise above 1.1440-1.1460 will return optimism to bulls and the level of 1.1520-1.1540 breakthrough will mean the larger upward correction development. Risks of the pair fall resumption, the support of 1.1200-1.1220 breakthrough and the low of 1.1100-1.1120 testing are still high as evidenced by the euro inability to overcome the resistance near 1.1440-1.1460.

Pound

The pound was under pressure from the dollar part, but by the end of the session it leveled almost all the losses and closed near the opening price. The second UK GDP assessment for the 4th quarter is expected with revision downwards, + 0.5% q/q, + 2.7% y/y against the previously announced. + 0.7% q/q, + 3.0% y/y. The British Industry Confederation retail sales report (CBI) in February is expected with an increase to 42 after 39.

Having rebounded from the resistance around 1.5490-1.5510, the pair fell to the support near 1.5330-1.5350 which has successfully kept the bears’ attack. They failed to absorb the bulls’ bids and the pair again rose above 1.5415-1.5435, testing the fresh high at the level of 1.5470-1.5490.

The support levels: 1.5395-1.5415 and the resistance levels: 1.5490-1.5510.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

It is possible that the pair will grow to 1.5490-1.5510 and the upward correction within the pound will be completed and therefore it will be the decline resumption. The bears need to break through the support near 1.5260-1.5280 to achieve this target, thereby reducing the pound to the 52nd figure. The level of 1.5490-1.5510 breakthrough will allow bulls to test the resistance around 1.5560-1.5580.

Yen

The pair dollar/yen declined in the early trading amid the risk aversion. Information about the draft agreement appearance between the Greeks and the Euro group provoked the pair, the price returned to their original positions and the pair finished the trade at the opening level. The January consumer price index is expected to reach 2.4% y/y as in December and the unemployment rate is expected to be 3.4%.

The pair dollar/yen tried to break through the support at the level of 118.15-118.35 last week, but its attempts were unsuccessful. In general, after it has reached the level of 120.20-120.40 the pair is in the consolidation phase, trading between this level and the support around 116.05-116.25.

The support levels: 117.95-118.15, and the resistance levels: 119.25-119.45.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The forecast is still positive, although the dollar still needs to overcome the resistance near 120.20-120.40 for its growth continuation. The loss of support near 117.95-118.15 will lead to a decrease towards the 116th figure.