16 January 2015, EUR/USD
The European currency fell against the dollar. We expect for the 2014 Germany GDP preliminary assessment, forecasts suggest an increase by 1.5% y/y. If the result is worse then the euro sales can resume. The euro/dollar is still under pressure from the sellers’ side, the pair rebounded from the resistance around 1.1820-1.1840, breaking through the supports near 1.1740-1.1760 and 1.1670-1.1690 and then tested the level of 1.5880-1.1600.
The support levels are 1.5880-1.1600, and the resistance levels are 1.1690-1.1710.
MACD is in a negative territory.
The levels of the euro "birth" make bears nervous that does not exclude the further pair reduction towards 1.1500-1.5200. In this case, the short positions opening at the current levels is somewhat a risky business, because here speculators can begin to record actively profits, so we do not have to ignore the protective orders.
The British pound fell against the dollar. Earlier the pound was supported by the Bank of England governor M. Carney’s speech who assured the Parliament of Great Britain that additional stimulus will not work. The RICS report showed that the housing prices balance in December show a decline to 11% from 13%. The pair GBP/USD broke through the resistance near the 52nd figure that allowed the pound to test the level of 1.5260-1.5280. Then the pair fell to the level of 1.1540-1.1560.
The support levels: 1.5140-1.5160 and the resistance levels: 1.5220-1.5240.
The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.
The resistance of 1.5220-1.5240 breakthrough is a positive signal, but the pair needs to consolidate and overcome the resistance around 1.5280-1.5300 for its growth continuation. The return below 1.5140-1.5160 will cast doubt the pound ability to develop the upward correction.
The Japanese economy publication showed disappointing results that could put pressure on the yen which is now declining against the dollar. The machinery and equipment orders in November declined in November by 14.6% y/y vs. -4.9% y/y and, most importantly, one of the inflation indicators - the Japanese corporations price index in December continued to decline -0.4% m/m 1.9% y/y after -0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y in November and -0.8% m/m 2.9% y/y in October.
The pair USD/JPY continued to decline. Breaking through the support around 116.95-117.15, the pair dropped to 116.05-116.25. But the dollar rebounded from 116.05-116.25 and moved towards 117.95-118.15, indicating its continued demand on the dips. Then the pair fell and tested the level of 116.05-116.25.
The support levels: 116.05-116.25, and the resistance levels: 117.15-117.35.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.
The pair growth can be resumed, but as long as it trades below 118.15-118.35 the risks of testing the current minimum will be saved.