The pound can get under pressure again | 30 December 2014

Euro

The euro continued to fall against the dollar and is very close to the two-year low. The manufacturing sphere final PMI assessment will attract our attention and the euro area as a whole. The lending data can also be very interesting for us - we assume there was a negative result in the annual comparison, but with less volumes, -0.9% y/y vs. -1.1% y/y. The pair euro/dollar remained under pressure. The pair decrease is continued from the resistance around 1.2270-1.2290 where it fell to the support around 1.2120-1.2140. This level copes successfully with its task, holding the bears’ attack, but the risks of the euro decrease are preserved.

The support levels are 1.2120-1.2140, and the resistance levels are 1.2200-1.2220.

MACD is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The support breakthrough will open the way to 1.1980-1.2000 where the bulls’ activation is possible. In its turn, the growth and the ability to consolidate above 1.2270-1.2290 can weaken the bearish pressure. The liquidity remains at the low level on the eve of the New Year holidays.

Pound

The British pound also fell against the dollar last week. The December manufacturing sphere PMI will attract our attention, with the expected growth up to 53.7 from 53.5, and the house prices index from Nationwide for the same month that is projected with growth by 0.3% m/m, as in November.

Pressure on the pair GBP/USD was preserved that fell to the support around 1.5460-1.5480. The moderate demand appeared, against which it recovered to the resistance around 1.5580-1.5560. It is difficult to give any assessment of the recovery in low liquidity terms. The pair decreased and broke the level of 1.5510-1.5530 downwards yesterday.

The support levels are 1.5460-1.5480, and the resistance levels are 1.5530 - 1.5550.

MACD is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

In general, the pair is not resold and can continue to decline towards the 1.5395-1.5415, but we should not exclude rebound to the resistance 1.5600-1.5620.

Yen

The Japanese yen also fell against the dollar. Statistics indicates the situation ambiguity - new buildings fell more than expected by-14.3% y/y, but the construction orders have grown by 16.9% y/y. Inflation slowed more than expected - to + 2.4% y/y from 2.9%, the household spending fell by 2.5% y/y, but it was better than expected -3.5% y/y, unemployment remained unchanged at the level of 3.5%. Being in the upwards trend active phase, the pair dollar/yen continued to grow after it consolidated above the level of 120.00-120.20. Bears tested this level but did not manage to breakthrough below this level.

The support levels: 120.00-120.20, and the resistance levels: 121.30-121.50.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The demand was preserved around the level of 120.00-120.20 and with it the chances to return to the highs at the level of 121.30-121.50. Its return below 120.00-120.20 will ease the upward impulse.