29 September 2014, EUR/USD
There were no interesting reports published from the Eurozone. The profit abilities differential on 10-year Germany state bonds fell below the level of 1%. The bullish trend to the US dollar is strengthening. The United States will publish the final GDP growth release in the 2nd quarter.
The EUR/USD continued its decline and it was not able to find the support at the level of 1.2730, from which it fell downwards. The downward trend is still at this stage and is in its active phase. The support levels are 1.2640 - 1.2660 and the resistance levels are 1.2730 - 1.2750.
MACD is in a negative territory.
There is a set of supports below the 26th figure, the most important of which is located near 1.2660 and, in view of the strong oversold from each of them and from the current levels, the upward correction development is possible. As a starting point, the single currency is necessary to break the resistance level of 1.2800.
The pound fell at the end of the last trading week. Before this it consolidated near the 63rd figure. Mark Carney said that the time for interest rates increase is getting closer that were viewed positively by market participants, however, we still have not seen strong quotations increase. Traders need drivers to determine the future quotations dynamics, but currently these are no drivers in the market. The UK and US10-year bonds profit abilities differential had not undergone any major changes last week.
Despite the rather positive statements by Mark Carney for the pound/dollar, the pair recovery was limited to the resistance level of 1.6370, where the pound was in demand and it fell below the resistance 1.6300. The inability to rise above 1.6370 is undoubtedly a negative technical factor.
The support levels are 1.6180 - 1.6200, and the resistance levels are 1.6300 - 1.6320.
MACD is in a neutral territory.
While the pound is trading above 1.6200-1.6180, there will be chances for a large-scale recovery. The current resistance breakthrough will lead to an increase near the 64th figure. The loss of 1.6200 will open the way to the level of 1.6130.
Japan is going to publish the August inflation data. It is worth noting that the Japan private consumption is still at a low level, that point out to the decline both in oil prices and CPI index. Against this background, we can expect the release to be slightly worse than the forecasted medians. The bulls are still unable to consolidate above the resistance around 109.20. All attempts face the bearish orders, keeping to attract the buyers’ interest, that are limited by the support level of 108.70 that maintains the resistance breakthrough risk and the level of 110.00 testing.
The support levels: 109.00-109.20, and the resistance levels: 110.00-110.20.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.
The loss of support will lead to a decrease to 108.20-108.00.
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