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After the inflation release the euro keeps falling

02 September 2014, EUR/USD


We don’t expect any important macroeconomic releases today. The United States celebrated the Labor Day so the banking institutions were closed. The EUR/USD finished the last trading week with the decrease. This week is full of important events, such as the ECB meeting and the United States labor market publication, which are able to strongly influence the pair dynamics. Before these events the price can consolidate above the support level of 1.3100.

The support levels are 1.3080- 1.3100, and the resistance levels are 1.3160 - 1.3180.

MACD is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The euro prospects remain negative, but its overselling increases the upward correction risk. The "bulls" need to go back above 1.3160, as well as to overcome the resistance level of 1.3220 for the upward correction.


The UK traders will appreciate the interesting reports publication. The Center for Macroeconomic Research Markit Economics will publish the manufacturing sector PMI. The main United Kingdom trading partner - Eurozone has stagnated in recent months so we can't expect the strong news. In this context, we can expect the data release slightly better forecasted medians that will not have the strong influence on the pound/dollar.

The GBP/USD fell to 1.6570 and then consolidated above this level. The pair fluctuations are limited by the resistance level of 1.6640 from the upper side. The pretty massive pound decline happened amid the profit taking led to its oversold so the consolidation is quite logical and natural.

The support levels are 1.6550 - 1.6570, and the resistance levels are 1.6640 - 1.6660.

MACD is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

In the new negative absence it is possible the pound/dollar restore to 1.6720.


The yen rose above the resistance level of 104.10. In the important macroeconomic statistics absence, we can expect a side trend within the defined range. However, we have got a strong statistics from the United States in the recent weeks and the Japan weak data, which makes the increase game more effective. The negative sentiment against the Japanese yen still persists, so the dollar reduce in tandem with yen was short-lived and limited support in the area of 103.80.

The support levels: 103.90- 104.10, and the resistance levels: 104.70- 104.90.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The dollar potential to back up the 104th figure significantly increases the growth to 104.70 probability, in which case we should expect the growth to the 105th figure direction. The support level of 103.80 loss will lead to a decrease to 103.35.

Ruban Sergey
Analyst of «FreshForex» company
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