19 August 2014, EUR/USD
In the absence of important macroeconomic statistics we expect trading in the medium-term range of 1.3332 -1.3444. It should be noted that the yield of the German 10-year bonds for the first time in history has fallen below 1% which is a negative factor for the single European currency.
As we have seen in the last two weeks, market participants refrained from active trading which can be related to the holiday season which traditionally is in August. The volatility has been reduced in recent days, however, at any time we can see the pair activity.
The support levels are 1.3330 - 1.3300, and the resistance levels are 1.3375 - 1.3400.
MACD is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.
We expect a short-term price growth that can be used to open short positions with the target 1.3250.
The growth of the British pound was supported by the Bank of England interest rates growth expectations which themselves were based on fairly strong macroeconomic data and the Central Bank economic forecasts. While the labor market showed a positive trend, the growth rate of wages were not impressive. All this along the less "hawkish" Mark Carney’s remarks led investors to revise their expectations about the central bank rates increasing.
As a result, the pair was under sales that triggered its fall from the resistance around 1.6842 to 1.6657. The pair started the week with a gap, still it has not shown any significant progress.
The support levels are 1.6640 - 1.6620 and the resistance levels are 1.6720 - 1.6750.
MACD is in a negative territory.
You’d better open short positions after the pair’s growth to 1.7000-1.7030.
The Japanese yen was under pressure that was caused by Japan's GDP data which showed a negative economy growth. The weak macroeconomic indicators increase the likelihood of the Bank of Japan's stimulus measures expansion. We do not see any reason to buy yen now. We believe it remains under pressure this week.
The support levels: 102.30- 102.50 and the resistance levels: 102.70- 102.80.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.
To keep growing the price needs breaking the level 102.60. Shall it break the level it can grow to 102.70. Otherwise the drop to 102.20I is expected.
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