15 August 2014, EUR/USD
The focus is on the Germany and the Eurozone GDP. Leading indicators show a mixed pattern - a strong slowdown in industrial production and a reduction in personal consumption against the growth of net exports and employment. It is also necessary to note that the EU sanctions against Russia took in effect in the second quarter that is a negative moment for business and economics.
The official statistical showed that French GDP has not changed the second quarter in a row. Experts suggested that the economy would grow by 0.1 percent more. The worst than expected statistics added fears about what the economic recovery in the euro zone is losing impulse and pushed the ECB to take measures to promote economic growth after lowering interest rates in June to record low levels.
The support levels are 1.3330 - 1.3300, and the resistance levels are 1.3375 - 1.3400.
MACD is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.
We expect the pair to be corrected upwards soon. The growth targets are 1.3375 and 1.3430.
The GBP/USD showed a rally after the UK macroeconomic news release. The unemployment fell to 6.4%. The last BoE minutes show positive news - the bank increased its economic growth estimates. The national currency could strengthen to the level of 1.6843.
The Central Bank expects the wages decrease to 1.25%. The regulator also said that the strong pound limits country export. After these statements the pound continued falling against the dollar.
The support levels are 1.6640 - 1.6620 and the resistance levels are 1.6720 - 1.6750.
MACD is in a negative territory.
The pound can test the support at 1.6640, a break of which will lead to a fall to 1.6570.
BOE expects that inflation will be fixed on the target level of 2% in the next fiscal year which begins April 1, 2015. Still some Bank members doubt that these plans can be fulfilled.
The latest economic data showed a sharp GDP decline in the second quarter. The sales tax rate growth has caused a sharp reduction in household spending.
The support levels: 102.30- 102.50 and the resistance levels: 102.70- 102.80.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.
Our outlook for the pair is still negative. The pair reached local maxima. We are waiting for the decline. The first target is the level of 102.30, then the level of 102.