12 August 2014, EUR/USD
The Euro updated the 2014 minimums under the pressure from Germany factory orders weak data.
The Germany statistics showed that the trade balance was worse than expected at 17.5 billion., reaching 16.2 billion. However, it was not because of the low trading activity, but because of the imports growth. The exports and imports indices exceeded the analysts' forecasts.
The euro/dollar was traded in the short range 1.3332 -1.3444 and today we can expect the lateral trend continuation during the day. It is worth noting that the current macroeconomic statistics confirms the bearish trend and its fracture is not out of the question.
The bulls managed to break through the resistance at the 34th figure and raise the EUR/USD to the resistance around 1.3431. Than the "bulls" success was over, although the single currency was able to make a weekly close above the tested figure.
The support levels are 1.3375- 1.3350, and the resistance levels are 1.3450 - 1.3430.
MACD is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.
The support of 1.3383-1.3375 break jeopardizes the current low values at 1.3330 and the level break will lead to a fall to 1.3306. The euro needs to rise above 1.3430-1.3475 for easing the downward pressure.
Today, we can expect a range trading amid the lack of interesting releases. The investors will take a break to think over the British currency current prospects.
The official statistics showed that the June trade deficit amounted to 2.459 billion against 2.418 billion earlier. This fact confirms the UK economic recovery slowdown.
The BoE left interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at 375 billion.
The support levels are 1.6720 - 1.6700, and the resistance levels are 1.6785 - 1.6800.
MACD is in a negative territory.
The price continues going downward. We expect the downward impulse to be continued. If the price breaks above 1.3430 that will weaken the downward pressure for a while and will direct the pair towards 1.35.
The BoJ, as expected, kept unchanged its monetary policy, having shown the industrial sector and net exports weakness. It was also stated that right now there is no reason to strengthen the Japanese currency and against this background, the short-term quotations decrease should be used to open long positions.
The support levels: 102.00- 102.20, and the resistance levels: 102.30- 102.40.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.
We assume that the pair may retest the resistance 102.40.