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The EUR/USD has not set its direction yet

14 July 2014, EUR/USD


That being the case we see that the euro/dollar shows "swing" now. The stock market correction and the euro/pound cross-course reduction stand on the "bears"’ side. The investors do not believe the Fed and the Protocol continue to close the long positions in the stock markets. There are two factors that are on the "bulls"’ side - the gold quotations growth and the U.S. 10 - year bonds yield spread decrease in Germany.

The growth euro/dollar sales strategy continues to justify itself, while it is not necessary talking about some real movements. Nevertheless, the "bulls" inability to break above the resistance around 1.3650 triggered a profit-taking after which the pair fell to 1.3589.

The support levels are 1.3570- 1.3590, and the resistance levels are 1.3650 - 1.3670.

MACD is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The falling to 1.3545 risks are still present, but the attempts to touch the 1.3650/70 are not excluded.


The British currency is trading near 71st figure and the EUR/GBP quotations cross-rate dynamics should be followed. The technical correction to the cross-rate is almost over and the continued downward trend development will support the demand for the British currency against the U.S. dollar. In this connection we feel comfortable taking longer-term long positions on the support levels.

The attempts to increase the GBP/USD to the current high continue to attract the interest in the sales, which, however, is not enough for the downward correction development.

The support levels are 1.7090 - 1.7110, and the resistance levels are 1.7170 - 1.7190.

MACD is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The exit from the current range will mark a further direction. In case of the pair exit from the upstream range need to consider the false breakdown possibility.


The sales in the global equity markets are synchronous, which confirms the technical correction presence. It is worth to pay attention to the U.S. stock market in this connection, since it is the global market’s "heart" for the corporate securities. The U.S. S & P500 index gained weight about 14% since February and ultimately we can expect the correction development to 1900 pp from the current price level which is about 3% and we will see a dollar/yen decrease on this negative background.

The support levels: 100.80- 101.00, and the resistance levels: 101.40- 101.60.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The breaking of 101.40 risks are saved. In this case we should expect the support of 101.00 testing. The return above 101.40 could weaken the "bearish" impulse.

Ruban Sergey
Analyst of «FreshForex» company
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