07 July 2014, EUR/USD
The bearish "trend is gaining its strength. External and internal conditions are on the U.S. currency side now. There was published the orders volume in the German industry. The manufacturing sector leading indicator PMI from Markit Economics shows a reduction that cannot be expected to the positive data yield for the last two months. The lack of interest in the report will support the downward trend for the euro/dollar.
After quite a logical falling down, the euro/dollar has broken through the support at 1.3650 and tested the mark of 1.3590. The pressure is still preserved, and kickbacks are limited by the resistance at 1.3618 now.
The support levels are 1.3590- 1.3600, and the resistance levels are 1.3650 - 1.3665.
MACD is in a negative territory.
Our outlook remains negative. In the short term, the pair may test the support of 1.3575 and 1.3545.
After a long pound growth investors closed long positions with taking profit. The technical correction is long overdue and the nearest strong support is around of 1.7070. Nevertheless, the "bulls" are not going to take their positions after the sterling looked confident enough, despite the positive statistics from the United States.
The British pound growth against the single currency supports pound against the U.S. dollar. Thus, the falls continue to attract interest for buying and are limited by the support in the area of 71st figure.
The support levels are 1.7090 - 1.7070, and the resistance levels are 1.7170 - 1.7190.
MACD is in a positive territory.
Despite the continued demand for the pound, it does not create proper overbought spiritual comfort for the buying at current levels. The 71st figure loss will weaken the bullish momentum.
In the absence of interesting reports from Japan, the dollar/yen will replicate the trade dynamics in the Japanese stock market. With the Tokyo trading opening we can expect the demand for corporate bonds, as investors will regain the positive external background.
Thanks to the withdrawing strong report on non-farm payrolls the U.S. dollar raised again against the Japanese yen, breaking 102nd figure and tested the 102.26 mark.
The support levels: 102.00- 102.10, and the resistance levels: 102.30- 102.40.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.
Nevertheless it failed to grow above, the risks that the pair may go down again are preserved, it can the test support at 101.59. To keep growing the dollar has to grow up and consolidate above 102.20.