13 June 2014, EUR/USD
We await the Euro area industrial production report for April. The leading indicators show the mixed background and we can expect the yield data with slight variations that will not cause a strong reaction from the market participants.
The employment growth together with the consumer confidence index from the Conference Board show an increase in the retail sales sector compared with April. The economists polled by Bloomberg, expect the retail sales growth in May by 0.5%. In the light of this the bears will dominate at the market.
The support levels are 1.3535- 1.3560, and the resistance levels are 1.3590- 1.3600.
MACD is in negative territory. The histogram is descending.
The today scenario is the growth structure development to the level 1.3676. The main growth target is the level 1.3845.
Despite the decreases in United Kingdom unemployment rate – the average earnings decrease indicates the personal consumption drop and will play a negative factor for the inflation growth. In the light of this, it is difficult to count on the British currency strong growth, as the low level indicator CPI will deter the Bank of England from a monetary policy early tapering which is waited by many investors.
Not without the positive fundamental data help the buyers managed to break above the resistance levels 1.6765, 1.6830 and 1.6900. The break opened the way for a downward trend line retest 1.6960 in the short term.
The price approached the downward trend line at lowering volumes. Apparently, it will be quite difficult for it to break above the trend line today.
The support levels are 1.6900 - 1.6920, and the resistance levels are 1.6960 - 1.6975.
MACD histogram is growing.
We do not exclude the attempt to break 1.6960. Next, we consider the possibility of another decrease structure with the target -1.6655.
The BSI business climate index for large manufacturers showed a significant drop in the second quarter, indicating a slowdown in industrial production. Against this background, it is difficult to rely on the positive data output on the orders volume for machinery and equipment in April. In the first half of the day we can expect the dollar/yen consolidation near the 102 figure.
In the U.S. trading session activity we can expect “bulls" activity in the stock markets, which will support the U.S. dollar. In general, we expect the side trend development during the day.
The support levels: 101.70-101.80, and the resistance levels: 102.00 – 102.10.
The MACD is below the zero line and decreasing confirming the current southern movement.
The pair has completed the decrease. Today we consider the possibility of correcting this pulse returning to the level 102.40.