06 June 2014, EUR/USD
The ECB announced its meetings results. The ECB decided to lower all rates. The market showed a high volatility after still it has not chosen the direction yet. We expect a relaxed trade within a narrow range. It should be noted that the negative macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone inflation leaves the ECB choice. The longer the inflationary pressure compression observes, the stronger is the negative effect on the economic growth. Against this background, we can expect bears to open "short position".
The support levels are 1.3590- 1.3600, and the resistance levels are 1.3650 - 1.3670.
MACD is in negative territory. The histogram is descending.
We believe the pair to continue its southern movement. The first target is 1.3535, the second one is 1.3480.
The GBP/USD sharply rose on the UK strong data. The business activity index in the service sector was slightly decreased in May - from 58.7 to 58.6, while we expected a larger decrease, to 58.2. The country services continued to steadily grow in May due to the new work places growth and the company’s creation that support the Bank of England forecast on GDP growth in the UK this year by 3%. At the same time, the Bank of England representative Sharpe said that despite the recent growth activity - the UK economy was still unstable and remained vulnerable to a variety of risks - both domestically and abroad.
The support levels are 1.6770 - 1.6750, and the resistance levels are 1.6800 - 1.6830.
MACD histogram is growing thus giving a buy signal.
In spite of the upward movement we expect the return to the fall. The targets are 1.6770, 1.6700.
The correlation between the dollar/yen and the Japanese stock market is still high, and in the absence of the important macroeconomic statistics from Japan and the U.S. - investors are closely watching the stock market dynamics. In anticipation of the data publication on the labor market investors took a wait and limited to the minimum the trading positions opening. Against this background, the USD/JPY can expect consolidation in the 102.77 resistance.
The support levels: 120.30-102.40, and the resistance levels: 102.70 – 102.80.
The MACD is above the zero line and growing confirming the current growth.
The growth above 102.00-102.40 is a positive factor for the dollar, but while it is trading below the 103rd figure the renewed reduce risks are kept.