04 June 2014, EUR/USD
The euro fell to a three-month low against the dollar after the weaker -than-expected Germany inflation data publication approved market in the opinion that in the current week, the ECB will launch the measures to stimulate the economic growth and inflation.
From a technical point of view, EUR/USD pair is trying to consolidate above the nearest support.
The support levels are 1.3590- 1.3600, and the resistance levels are 1.3650 - 1.3670.
MACD is in negative territory. The histogram is descending.
To go short bears need to break below the level 1.3590. This breakthrough opens the way to 1.3575, 1.3535.
The pound has lost upward momentum and continues to consolidate. The data recently published confirmed that the business activity index in the Britain manufacturing sector was 57.0 pp in May, as predicted by analysts. However, a separate report showed a reduction in the approved applications number for mortgages that disappointed investors. The statistics say that the economy continues to recover, but in some areas this recovery is still quite vulnerable.
The GBP / USD is trading around 1.6745.
The support levels are 1.6700 - 1.6730, and the resistance levels are 1.67700 - 1.6800.
MACD histogram is lowering thus giving a sell signal.
We are waiting for the second 1.6765 level retest. If the retest fails, the price may return to the support level 1.6700.
In the absence of important macroeconomic statistics publication from the U.S. and Japan follow the trading dynamics on the stock exchanges. The investors remain optimistic about the risky assets, which will maintain a moderate demand for the dollar/yen pair. The quotations growth above 102 figure refers to the fact that the importers hedge their trading risks and can quietly observe the quotations growth to 103 figure. In this area we expect a significant offer that will put pressure the pair.
The support levels: 120.30-102.40, and the resistance levels: 102.70 – 102.80.
The MACD is above the zero line and growing confirming the current growth.
The overall dollar/yen pair picture is starting to improve, but the base formation confirmation will be only 103rd figure breakout at the current minimum. Prior to this, the renewed downward correction risks will persist.