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The ECB policy change may fall the market

23 May 2014, EUR/USD


The ECB policy change may fall the market

The Macroeconomic Research Markit Economics published the manufacturing sector PMI in France and Germany. The Eurozone manufacturing sector’s leading economies entered a slowdown phase which together with the high euro exchange rate cannot be expected to show the positive data. In the light of this, we can expect the downward trend.

The support levels are 1.3630- 1.3650, and the resistance levels are 1.3680 - 1.3700.

MACD is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The "bears" inability will return confidence to the "bulls" which could lead to a growth above 1.3720. Mark that the EUR/USD decrease to a large extent was due to the euro/pound fall.


The ECB policy change may fall the market

The strong retail sales report on April shows that the British currency is still strong. The growth of private consumption is positive for the GDP growth and the United Kingdom economy has made a good start for the 2nd quarter now. We got a report on the revised GDP data for the 1st quarter and the Bank of England signaled that we should not expect the previously published values revision.

The support levels are 1.6810 - 1.6830, and the resistance levels are 1.6900 - 1.6920.

MACD is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The pound keeps trying to break above the 69th figure. If it manages, we should expect its growth to the psychological level 1.7000. The fall below 1.6840/20 will return the pair to a downward correction mainstream.


The ECB policy change may fall the market

As usually when we do not have the Japan important macroeconomic statistics we should monitor the global stock markets as there is very high correlation between Nikkei 225 and the USD/JPY pair. We watched the steady demand for risky assets in the positive trend continuing case, the dollar / yen will strive to 102nd figure.

The Macroeconomic statistics from the United States failed to please the "bulls" – the retail sales weak reports in April and slowing consumer confidence index from the Michigan Institute show to yield data on the real estate market at the economists consensus forecast level surveyed by Bloomberg.

The support levels: 101.20- 101.40, and the resistance levels: 101.70- 101.90.

The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The return above 101.20 and 101.59 is a positive factor, but the inability to consolidate above 101.59 increases the renewed decrease risks. If the pair keeps growing it will go to the resistance 102. The return below the 101.70 will direct the pair towards 101.

Ruban Sergey
Analyst of «FreshForex» company
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