14 April 2014, EUR/USD
The “bulls” on the euro/dollar continues to grow. The euro/dollar will consolidate with a tendency to increase after the 3-week high of 1.3900.
The pair overcame the local resistance around level of 1.3870 and rose up to 1.3899. Thus, it is close to its maximum, which makes the situation very interesting. The confident top level breakdown will mark the completion of the downtrend and development rising.
MACD indicates a growth.
The level 1.3966 breakdown looks unlikely, the technical picture looks quite real. Nevertheless, we can consider the possibility of selling at the current levels with a stop above the high level.
The pound/dollar will be consolidated and the risks balance can be moved towards its lowering after reaching a new high at the level 1.6820. The Bank of England monetary policy committee left its key interest rate at a record low of 0.5% and the retained bond purchase program volume at 375 billion pounds. The pair will fill the pressure from British currency sales in declining pair pound/ yen amid increasing negative sentiment towards risk and increasing the euro/pound, as well as profit-taking on the long positions in the pound.
The pair reduction potential will be restrained by the negative attitude to the U.S. market.
GBP/USD tested the recent years high marks at the level 1.6820 at the last Asian session, and then fell back to 1.6754 and continued to consolidate between these levels. The demand for the pair continues. Despite the proximity of the maximum values, the sellers have not yet seen.
MACD indicates a growth.
The growth is possible to the 68th figure. The correction is possible to the level 1.6660.
Attitude to the dollar improves less than it was expected, initial jobless claims came out less than it was expected (300 000, which corresponds to almost 7-year low in the week March 30 - April 5 vs. 320,000) and a stronger than it was expected monthly growth price index for the U.S. imports in March ( 0.6 % vs. 0.2% growth ). The pair reduction potential will also be constrained by the demand from Japanese importers and the adjusting positions.
Daily chart demonstrates negative signals: MACD shows a decline.
Nevertheless, as the pair is trading below the last level, the renewed decline risks will be continued. The support break will lead the apir to 100.75 testing.
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