03 April 2014, EUR/USD
As we know Janet Yellen pointed to the still weak employment in the U.S. economy, while stating, that in some industries the situation is even more difficult, than it was in a recession. In the lights of this it is hard to rely on the strong ADP growth which will act as a deterrent growth of the U.S. currency.
The dynamics of the euro/dollar were extremely boring and uninteresting yesterday. The pair rose up to 1.3815, and later retreated to 1.3790. In the Asian session, the pair continued falling which is still limited with the support 1.3740. Thus, the situation remains unchanged.
The support levels: 1.3700 - 1.3740, and the resistance levels: 1.3810 – 1.3830.
MACD indicator is at the zero level. The indicator does not give any clear signal.
The rebound from the support level 1.3729 and the attempt to consolidate above the 38th figures say about the “bulls” desires which can test the resistance at 1.3840-1.3880. A drop below 1.3720 will open the way to 1.3618.
The increase in the mortgage lending in February, coupled with the increasing consumer confidence in the U.K. give a hope to slightly better news than the median forecast was which support the demand for the British currency versus the U.S. dollar. The ADP employment report is expected. After the negative Janet Yellen’s speech the coming releases can be worse than everyone expects which is favorable for the “cable”.
The support level is 1.6600 and the resistance level 1.6660.
MACD is decreasing showing a sell sentiment.
In the short term the 1.6600 level may be tested, the breach of which would lead to a fall down to 1.6555. Still the pair can grow above 1.6684 and test 1.6786/800.
The quarterly large manufacturers Tankan index activity indicates an economic growth slowdown and therefore the “bulls” will continue to go long in the future, based on the Japanese yen weakening.
The dollar/yen is slowly, but surely moving higher and higher. The pair grew up to 103.70 resistance level, and in the Asian session the pair tested 103.93. The kickbacks continue to attract the buyers and are limited, which indicates the uptrend strength.
The support levels: 102.60 - 102.45 and the resistance levels: 103.00 - 103.20.
MACD is pointing up, indicating the current uptrend movement.
The pair show overbought signs, which, however, does not serve as an obstacle to the further growth. The falling below 102.79 will significantly weaken the “bullish” power. If the pair keeps growing it may reach 104 soon.