20 March 2014, EUR/USD
The single European currency continues to trade upwards. On the way of the euro there’s a very strong resistance level - 1.4000. If it is passed, then the euro can aspire to the level 1.4250.
Still that scenario is not going to happen soon. The pair is going down.
Meanwhile, the ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned that the strong euro carries some risks for the European economy as well as helping to reduce the inflation and increase the likelihood of the deflation risks. The ECB will closely monitor the fluctuations in the currency market and can try to loosen it.
It’s recommended to open a short positions after the breakdown of the level 1.3860 with a stop loss at 1.3900 and the target 1.3740.
The Japanese yen returned some positions in the Forex market in relation to the U.S. dollar as the pair is trading at maximum 102.30 achieved at the auction on Wednesday. The crisis in Ukraine continues to dominate the news, and suppress the mood in the markets. The FED’s decision supported the pair as well.
We can expect a "bullish" movement to the level 102.30, but the USD/JPY is likely to come back to retest its basic support at 100.75. On the other hand the breakdown of the support 100.75 may result may push the pair down to the strong level 0.96.70.
The British Pound reduced the maximum reduction in the last week versus the dollar as the Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he doesn’t want a division of Ukraine, which eased some concerns about the further developments.
The Bank of England Head Carney said that the interest rates would remain low "for some time": the Bank of England would not risk a British economy, any change in the interest rates would be limited and gradual, the Bank of England will publish more research on the current monetary policy decisions.
At present time there is a corrective pullback to the resistance level 1.6550 A continued consolidation by this level will lead to a rebound of the price downward. The main purpose of the rebound will be the next round support level 1.6480.