11 March 2014, EUR/USD
EU and the USA will not publish interesting macroeconomic reports today. Geopolitical risks went into the shade now, still the situation remains unsolved - Russia threatens to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine over debts, which in its turn can give a new turn in the confrontation between the two countries.
Another leading indicator, - the spread enlarging between 10-year U.S. and German bonds, is pointing to a possible dollar growth.
The support levels: 1.3810-1.3772 and the resistance levels: 1.3892-1.3968.
The bullish 1.3910 breakout may lead to a resumption of the uptrend to 1.4310. But the probability of this is lower than the rollback down, which will allow the pair to stay in the channel for a while. The first downtrend target is 1.3810.
In the absence of macroeconomic releases from the UK and U.S. investors take a pause; the trading activity is low. A medium-term trend is directed upwards, but for the continued growth we need serious drivers. In general, we can expect a side movement during the day.
The support levels: 1.6660 - 1.6600 and the resistance levels: 1.6730 - 1.6757.
The resistance 1.6750/30 knocked off bulls' attempts to break down this barrier and the price goes down again to the consolidation range that is at 1.6690/80 now.
The resistance 1.6750/30 break will confirm an upward movement to 1.6800 and further to 1.6850/80. Still if the pair gets below 1.6620/10 that will sign about the downtrend beginning.
The yen was growing in the first month of the year, the official reserves grew to $ 10.3 billion as well. The positive leading indicators allow us to calculate the reduction of a negative payment balance. The economic growth revised figures are expected to show a decline to 0.9 %, which will constrain the strengthening of the Japanese yen.
The support levels: 102.82 - 102.16 and the resistance levels: 103.37 - 103.91.
A small correction to the support level 102.70 is possible. Strong U.S. news will push USD/JPY to the resistance 105. The pair's outlook is positive, and after a brief consolidation we expect an uptrend to test the local maximum 105.40.