25 February 2014, EUR/USD
IFO Institute published PMI Germany release yesterday. We received negative reports on the industrial sector PMI and ZEW Economic Sentiment. The number of pessimists grew indicating that the IFO Institute data is worse than median forecasts.
The resistance area 1,3759-61 blocks the way to seven-week high 1.3773, reached last week. A consolidation below Friday's 1.3759 puts pressure on the support levels 1.3717 and 1.3708, and a break down will target the pair to a minimum of last week 1.3685. Concerted wave bullish pressure to break resistance area 1,3759-61 is necessary, jeopardizing 1.3773.
A correlation between the stock futures Nikkei 225 and the pair USD/JPY is still very high and, in the case of overcoming the resistance level 14 933 n - Japanese yen will weaken to the mark 103.30. Otherwise, we are waiting for a lateral trend during the day.
The support levels: 102.16 - 101.78 and the resistance levels: 102.60 - 103.37.
The support 102.03 shall limit a corrective decline from 102.83. Falling the pair will meet the support as long as it is being traded above 101.90. This support will protect 101.67.
The pound remained under the pressure after the published data showed an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 7.2% for the three months, including December. Initial Jobless Claims surprisingly fell in January at 27.6K vs. 20.0K in December and 27.7 in value.
From a technical point of view, the pair GBP/USD tested the support in the recent lows at $ 1.6620. The immediate resistance is at $ 1.6730 (Jan 19). The strong resistance level is in the range highs of Monday at $ 1.6820.
The immediate goal is the downtrend channel’s lower boundary 1.6580. This level retest can be accompanied by the return back to 1.6640. Then we can expect a downward trend towards the support level 1.6550.