EURUSD: BUY 1.1675, SL 1.1625, TP 1.1775 | 05 September 2025

Event to pay attention to today:

04.09 15:15 EET. USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

04.09 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

04.09 17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services PMI

EURUSD:

The EUR/USD exchange rate is declining after rising during the previous session, trading at around 1.1650 during Thursday's Asian session.

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Eurozone retail sales are expected to rise 2.4% year-on-year in July, compared to previous growth of 3.1%. However, monthly sales are expected to decline 0.2% compared to previous growth of 0.3%.

Nevertheless, the EUR/USD pair may recover as the US dollar (USD) may struggle, as weaker-than-expected JOLTS job openings data for July increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September. The number of job openings fell from 7.35 million to 7.18 million, the lowest level since September 2024 and below the forecast of 7.4 million.

However, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari issued another warning on Wednesday, saying that tariffs are driving up consumer prices for goods, which in turn is pushing up inflation. Kashkari also warned that the US economy is increasingly leaning toward a “soft landing” scenario. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that high inflation remains the main risk for the Fed, but signs of a weakening labor market still point to a one-quarter-point rate cut this year.

Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1675, SL 1.1625, TP 1.1775

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