USDJPY: BUY 148.85, SL 148.35, TP 149.50 | 04 September 2025

Event to watch today:

03.09 17:00 EET. USD - JOLTs Job Openings

USDJPY:

The yen softens on the back of global yield strength and domestic political uncertainty, while the dollar gains support from the US curve and a weaker risk mood. At preparation time the pair trades near 148.85, with swings amplified by changing signals from US activity gauges.

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Domestic Japanese factors have yet to offer the yen a firm anchor. Despite a pickup in long-end JGB yields, the Bank of Japan’s policy guidance remains highly gradual, and abundant dollar liquidity alongside Japan’s external terms of trade continue to pose headwinds for JPY. Verbal-intervention risks from the MoF stay on the radar but lack clear triggers for a trend reversal.

The US, by contrast, benefits from elevated real yields and resilient labor-market expectations. As long as the risk backdrop and yield differentials persist, the fundamental balance favors buying dips, with scope to test psychological levels on the upside.

Trading recommendation: BUY 148.85, SL 148.35, TP 149.50

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