GBPUSD: SELL 1.3395, SL 1.3450, TP 1.3345 | 04 September 2025

Event to watch today:

03.09 16:15 EET. GBP - Monetary Policy Report Hearings

03.09 17:00 EET. USD - JOLTs Job Openings

GBPUSD:

Sterling faces heavier pressure amid a jump in long-end UK gilt yields and budget-related headlines: higher term premia amplify doubts about growth resilience and raise borrowing costs for the economy. As a result, GBP weakens versus the dollar, which also enjoys a quality premium amid global fiscal jitters.

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The monetary backdrop adds volatility. Markets are torn between the risk of BoE easing into autumn and the need to keep rates elevated for longer due to sticky services inflation. The dispersion of expectations for the BoE path, together with steadier demand for USD on the back of stronger US Treasury yields, creates an unfavorable fundamental mix for GBPUSD.

In the short run, UK budget news flow and gilt yields will remain key for the pound; US labor and activity data can further widen the differential in the dollar’s favor. Overall, fundamentals suggest selling rallies with an eye on retesting recent lows.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3395, SL 1.3450, TP 1.3345

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