EURUSD: SELL 1.1630, SL 1.1680, TP 1.1580 | 04 September 2025

Event to watch today:

03.09 17:00 EET. USD - JOLTs Job Openings

EURUSD:

The euro remains under pressure as demand for the US dollar as a “safe haven” rises amid higher long-end Treasury yields and a broader risk-off tone. Today during Asian trading, the pair fluctuates around 1.1630–1.1650. Dollar inflows are supported by concerns over fiscal sustainability in advanced economies and a steeper US yield curve, which dampen risk appetite and reduce demand for the euro.

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From a fundamental standpoint the setup is mixed: markets still price a chance of a Fed rate cut in September, yet the actual backdrop—firmer long-dated yields and cautious commentary on the US cycle—keeps the dollar supported. In the euro area, attention stays on inflation and signs of cooling domestic demand: soft PMI components and CPI expectations limit upside for the euro, while the differential in real rates continues to favor the USD.

Near-term drivers include the incoming US macro flow on employment (including advance gauges and Friday’s labor data) as well as fresh inflation pointers from the eurozone. Against this backdrop, the fundamental balance still tilts in favor of the dollar, keeping downside break risks elevated for EURUSD in case US releases surprise to the upside.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1630, SL 1.1680, TP 1.1580

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