USDJPY: SELL 147.85, SL 148.50, TP 146.50 | 28 August 2025

USDJPY: Dollar/yen remains sensitive to U.S. rate repricing: political uncertainty around the Fed and a pullback in short-term U.S. yields limit the pair’s upside. Against this backdrop, periodic demand for safe-haven assets supports the yen, while a narrowing U.S.–Japan yield differential caps the dollar.

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An additional fundamental factor is the vigilant stance of Japan’s Ministry of Finance toward FX market volatility. Verbal signals of “heightened vigilance” traditionally restrain attempts at rapid JPY weakening and reduce the odds of a sustained upside break absent confirmation from U.S. rates.

Risks to the short scenario include stronger-than-expected U.S. data, rising real yields, and clear market doubts about the prospects for Fed easing. Otherwise, the fundamental backdrop still suggests USDJPY is inclined to correct lower from the 147–148 area.

Trading recommendation: SELL 147.85, SL 148.50, TP 146.50

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