EURUSD: SELL 1.1590, SL 1.1630, TP 1.1530 | 25 August 2025

Event to watch today:

22.08 17:00 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

EURUSD:

EUR/USD starts Friday under pressure amid caution ahead of Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole. The market-implied probability of a September Fed rate cut has eased compared with the start of the week, supporting the dollar and cooling risk appetite. As a result, investors prefer defensive positioning while awaiting fresh guidance from the Fed and upcoming labor market and inflation prints. On balance, near-term fundamentals still favor the dollar.

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The euro’s domestic backdrop is not offering stable support either: August business activity and sentiment data have been mixed, while markets are watching how the ECB will proceed after its summer easing. In the absence of convincing signs of faster euro-area growth and with yield differentials still favoring the U.S., the euro has fewer reasons to strengthen ahead of U.S. releases.

Additional volatility stems from ongoing U.S.–EU trade and industrial policy discussions, where headlines shift quickly. Until there is concrete progress on tariffs or joint support measures for industry, investors usually avoid aggressive long euro exposure. Taken together, these fundamental factors create a tactical advantage for the dollar over the euro in today’s session.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1590, SL 1.1630, TP 1.1530

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