USDJPY: SELL 145.95, SL 146.35, TP 144.95 | 15 August 2025

Event to pay attention to today:

14.08 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

USDJPY:

The Japanese yen (JPY) continues to rise against the weakening US dollar (USD) for the third consecutive day, reaching a three-week high during Thursday's Asian session. Growing confidence that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will stick to its policy normalization course and raise interest rates by the end of this year continues to support the yen. Meanwhile, expectations of a hawkish BoJ policy contrast sharply with growing bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its cycle of rate cuts in September. This, in turn, is keeping the US dollar close to its lowest level in more than two weeks and contributing to capital inflows into the lower-yielding Japanese yen.

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The above-mentioned supportive factors largely offset the prevailing risk appetite and have virtually no impact on the strong bullish sentiment towards the Japanese yen as a safe-haven currency. Meanwhile, concerns about consumption-led economic recovery amid falling real wages in Japan for the sixth consecutive month in June and the potential negative impact of US tariff hikes on the economy suggest that the prospects for further BoJ rate hikes may be delayed. This could prevent yen bulls from positioning themselves for a sharp rally. Traders are now awaiting the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) later today, ahead of preliminary data on Japan's second-quarter GDP on Friday.

Trade recommendation: SELL 145.95, SL 146.35, TP 144.95

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