GBPUSD: BUY 1.3610, SL 1.3570, TP 1.3670 | 15 August 2025

Event to pay attention to today:

14.08 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

GBPUSD:

Signs of cooling in the US labor market have pushed futures to expect a series of rate cuts before the end of the year. This, in turn, could lead to a decline in the dollar against the pound sterling. Federal fund futures traders now estimate the probability of a 25 basis point (bp) cut at the September meeting at nearly 94%, compared to 85% before the inflation data was released.

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Investors are preparing for the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report on Thursday. The overall PPI is expected to show a 2.5% year-on-year increase in July, while the core PPI is expected to show a 2.9% year-on-year increase for the same period.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released on Tuesday showed that the UK unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.7% for the three months to June, in line with estimates. This is the highest rate since July 2021. Meanwhile, average earnings excluding bonuses remained at 5.0% for the three months to June.

Traders will be watching the UK's second-quarter GDP report closely, as it may provide some clues about the direction of interest rates in the country.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3610, SL 1.3570, TP 1.3670

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