EURUSD: BUY 1.1660, SL 1.1625, TP 1.1710 | 11 August 2025
11 August 2025, EUR/USD
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD exchange rate remains stable after rising during the previous three sessions, trading at around 1.1660 during Asian trading hours on Friday. The pair may regain its positions as the US dollar (USD) may struggle as markets assess the probability of a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut at the September meeting at nearly 93%, compared to 48% a week ago.
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Expectations for a Fed rate cut in September have intensified as the number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the US increased after the US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report for July pointed to a cooling labor market.
Data on initial jobless claims in the US showed that the number of US citizens filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose to 226,000 for the week ending August 2. This figure exceeded the market consensus forecast of 221,000 and was higher than the previous week's figure of 218,000.
The probability that the central bank will leave rates unchanged is approximately 87%. Markets estimate the probability of another ECB rate cut before March 2026 at only 60%.
Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1660, SL 1.1625, TP 1.1710
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