GBPUSD: BUY 1.3350, SL 1.3295, TP 1.3460 | 08 August 2025

Events to watch today:

07.08 14:00 EET. GBP - Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

07.08 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

GBPUSD:

Sterling is hovering near three-week highs as markets almost unanimously expect the Bank of England’s MPC to trim the base rate to 4.00 % at today’s meeting, with a split vote. Investors view the prospective cut as insurance against trade-policy risks rather than a sign of economic weakness, given that July CPI remains elevated at 3.2 % y/y and caps the depth of any easing cycle.

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The dollar’s weakness is amplified by political uncertainty in Washington: slower U-S jobs growth and growing speculation over a new Fed Chair widen the expected policy divergence in favour of GBP. Britain’s trade balance also surprised with a small surplus in Q2, helped by surging revenues at FTSE-100 mining majors amid a gold-price spike.

Fiscal policy provides an additional tail-wind. The Treasury has announced temporary tax relief for small businesses, softening the blow from high borrowing costs and underpinning domestic demand. All told, the balance of risks points towards further upside in the pair towards 1.3460.

Trade recommendation: BUY 1.3350, SL 1.3295, TP 1.3460

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