EURUSD: SELL 1.1565, SL 1.1600, TP 1.1515 | 31 July 2025

Events to watch today:

30.07 15:30 EET. USD - Gross Domestic Product

30.07 21:30 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision

EURUSD:

EUR/USD remains under pressure amid stronger demand for the US Dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve decision (July 30, 2025). Market sentiment reflects the perception that the recent US–EU trade arrangements are relatively more favorable for the US economy, reinforcing expectations for stronger corporate earnings and a more supportive external balance in the coming months. Capital flows are skewed toward dollar-denominated assets, also because investors prefer to wait out key central‑bank communications in “quality” instruments.

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A further driver is the divergence in macro momentum: the US economy shows greater resilience in consumption and labor markets, while the euro area faces constrained growth and a cautious ECB tone. With little reason for ECB tightening and with lingering risks for European industry and exports after tariff headlines, the euro’s fundamental support looks softer. Persisting uncertainty around the inflation path in the euro area adds to the preference for the USD.

Given these factors, the near‑term fundamental tilt remains to the downside for EURUSD. Risks to this view include unexpectedly dovish Fed communication, a pullback in US Treasury yields, and/or positive euro‑area data surprises that could improve growth expectations and support the euro.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1565, SL 1.1600, TP 1.1515

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