GBPUSD: SELL 1.3350, SL 1.3380, TP 1.3275 | 30 July 2025

An event to watch out for today:

29.07 17:00 EET. USD - Consumer Confidence Index

GBPUSD:

The pound is trading near 1.3350 after a three-day decline, reacting to accelerating prices in retail chains: according to BRC data, the annual growth of the shop-price index accelerated to 0.7% in July, the highest since April 2024. Food inflation has accelerated to 4%, putting pressure on real incomes and slowing consumption: for the sixth month in a row, there has been a decline in shopping center attendance and a reduction in weekly debit card spending.

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Despite price pressures, the Bank of England, which will meet on August 7, is still leaning toward a fifth consecutive rate cut. The market estimates the probability of such a move at just over 60%, and by the end of the year, it is forecasting a further 25 basis points of easing. The regulator's rhetoric about the “need to support the slowing economy” exacerbates the yield differential against the dollar and makes the pound vulnerable.

The US currency is fueled by expectations of a hawkish Fed stance and capital inflows into defensive assets amid tariff tensions. As long as the dollar index remains at 98.7 points, demand is limited, and the pair remains at risk of testing 1.3300 as early as this week.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3350, SL 1.3380, TP 1.3275

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