EURUSD: SELL 1.1735, SL 1.1755, TP 1.1635 | 29 July 2025

EURUSD:

The euro remains under pressure, with the rate dropping to 1.1735 amid combined influences from monetary policy and weak economic data in the Eurozone. Statistics indicate a cooling of inflation in the region, increasing expectations for a second round of easing from the ECB this autumn. Meanwhile, the dollar is supported by rising market anticipation of another Fed rate hike in September following a strong report on core personal consumption expenditures.

US 10-year Treasury yields stabilized at 4.46%, supporting the dollar's appeal to international investors. On the political front, the decision of the US and EU to agree on a "framework" for industrial tariffs has eased market jitters but has not improved the euro outlook: investors are focused on the rate differential and the widening gap in economic growth rates across the Atlantic.

Additional pressure comes from a drop in Germany's export orders for the third consecutive month, increasing the risks of a technical recession in the second half of the year. The combination of weak macro data from the Eurozone and "hawkish" comments from Fed officials creates a negative fundamental backdrop for the pair.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1735, SL 1.1755, TP 1.1635

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