EURUSD: SELL 1.1735, SL 1.1755, TP 1.1635 | 26 July 2025

26 July 2025, EUR/USD

Event to watch today:

25.07 15:30 EET.USD - Change in orders for durable goods

EURUSD:

The euro remains under pressure as the bond yield gap is once again widening in favor of the dollar following comments from Fed Chair Powell about the need to “keep policy tight for longer” to counteract the inflationary effects of new US tariffs. Additional support for the dollar came from the increase in June retail sales and a decline in jobless claims, which confirms the resilience of the US economy and pushes expectations for the first rate cut toward the year-end.

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From the European side, euro support is undermined by signs of slowing activity: the GfK consumer confidence index in Germany remains below its historical average, and preliminary July eurozone PMIs, despite some improvement, still indicate an uneven recovery of the real sector. Further pressure comes from ongoing uncertainty around EU–US trade talks; Washington is still discussing the possibility of 15% tariffs, which threatens the bloc’s export prospects and fuels demand for the safe-haven dollar.

With monetary policy divergence and tariff escalation risks persisting, the pair is likely to continue correcting toward 1.17. Investors are awaiting tomorrow’s US PCE data, which could reinforce expectations of the Fed maintaining a “hawkish” stance and cement the downward trend.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1735, SL 1.1755, TP 1.1635

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The author's opinion reflects their personal view and is not an investment recommendation. The company is not responsible for any trading results based on the provided analytical data.
David Johnson
Analyst of «FreshForex» company
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