EURUSD: BUY 1.1625, SL 1.1595, TP 1.1680 | 18 July 2025

Event to watch today:

17.07 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

EURUSD:

The euro is edging back toward the 1.16 – 1.17 range highs after headlines suggesting former U.S. president Donald Trump might try to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell and a softer-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) print pressured the dollar. Political noise around the Fed’s independence, coupled with a cooling inflation pulse, has pushed market pricing toward a longer policy pause; the pair is hovering near 1.1625 at the time of writing.

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Fundamental support also stems from the upcoming 24 July ECB meeting. Governing-Council commentary reveals a split between hawks and would-be doves, yet consensus that euro-area inflation remains above target makes an aggressive rate cut unlikely for now. Meanwhile, subdued U.S. Treasury yields—futures price a 95 % probability of no change this month and only 50 bp of total easing over 12 months—help narrow the U.S.–German 10-year spread to about 150 bp.

Against a backdrop of ongoing U.S. trade tensions and steady inflows into euro-area assets, that narrower spread leaves room for EURUSD to grind toward the 1.1680 target if sentiment stays risk-positive.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1625, SL 1.1595, TP 1.1680

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