GBPUSD: SELL 1.3450, SL 1.3480, TP 1.3350 | 16 July 2025

Events to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

23:00 EET. GBP - BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

GBPUSD:

Sterling is on the back foot—the rate has dropped toward 1.3450—after the U.S. announced sweeping 30‑percent tariffs on goods from the EU and Mexico, triggering capital flows into dollar assets. The pound was further pressured by lacklustre GDP figures: the U.K. economy expanded by only 0.1 % q/q in Q2, bolstering expectations that the Bank of England could cut rates as early as August.

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On the U.S. side, traders await the June CPI print, which is expected to show inflation quickening to 2.7 % y/y. Combined with a resilient labour market, such a reading could deter the Fed from an early policy pivot and lend the dollar extra support. The yield gap and diverging policy trajectories accentuate the downward bias in GBPUSD.

Political risk is likewise working against the pound: talks between London and Brussels on a ‘steel package’ are stalling, and Governor Andrew Bailey’s recent warnings about labour‑market softness underline the BoE’s dovish tilt. As long as the backdrop remains unchanged, the pair can slide toward 1.3350; a rebound above 1.3480 would likely require an unexpectedly soft U.S. inflation print.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3450, SL 1.3480, TP 1.3350

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