USDJPY: BUY 147.45, SL 146.35, TP 148.45 | 15 July 2025

USDJPY:

The pair has printed a one-month high at 147.45, supported by two key drivers: the yield spread between 10-year Treasuries (≈ 4.4 %) and JGBs (≈ 0.85 %) has stretched to roughly 355 bp, and fresh threats from the White House to impose 25 % tariffs on Japanese autos are fuelling defensive hedging in dollars among Japanese corporates.

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Monetary divergence also favours the greenback. After a token hike to 0.15 % in April, the Bank of Japan has signalled a protracted pause amid weakening domestic demand, whereas the Fed keeps its target at 5.25–5.50 %. That makes USD-denominated carry trades attractive and feeds demand for USDJPY.

Data divergence completes the picture: Japan’s Q1 GDP contracted 0.2 % q/q, while the University of Michigan consumer-confidence index in the U.S. is holding above 52. The resulting flow of capital into higher-yielding U.S. assets underpins the pair’s upward trend.

Trading recommendation: BUY 147.45, SL 146.35, TP 148.45

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