GBPUSD: SELL 1.3475, SL 1.3505, TP 1.3430 | 15 July 2025

GBPUSD:

Sterling is oscillating around 1.3480, digesting mixed external signals. A slight pull-back in the DXY has provided brief relief, yet the fundamental backdrop remains bearish: the imminent start of 30 % U.S. tariffs on European and Mexican goods in three weeks threatens UK exporters by extension and sustains flight-to-quality demand for the dollar.

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Domestic figures add to the pound’s woes. UK GDP contracted 0.1 % m/m for a second straight month, industrial output fell 0.9 %, and manufacturing output dropped 1 %. The data reinforce bets that the Bank of England will have to lower rates as early as August to shore up demand, despite inflation still running at 3.6 % y/y.

On the U.S. side, strong labour-market readings and sticky inflation keep the Fed in wait-and-see mode. The yield gap between 10-year Treasuries and Gilts has widened beyond 200 bp, prompting capital outflows from UK debt and capping any sterling rebound.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3475, SL 1.3505, TP 1.3430

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