GBPUSD: BUY 1.3745, SL 1.3665, TP 1.3845 | 01 July 2025

GBPUSD:

On Friday, data emerged that personal spending in the US unexpectedly fell in May, the second decline this year. Meanwhile, US personal income fell 0.4% in May, the biggest decline since September 2021. A number of key US employment data are expected to be released in the coming week, which could add fresh impetus to the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook.

The June employment report is expected to show that the economy added 110,000 new jobs, up from 135,000 in May. In addition, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%.

GBP/USD is also rising as the Pound Sterling (GBP) receives support from the Bank of England's (BoE) cautious stance on rate cuts as United Kingdom (UK) inflation remains volatile. Core inflation has remained largely unchanged over the past year.

Meanwhile, political tensions escalated in the UK as Prime Minister Keir Starmer scaled back plans for welfare reform to contain a revolt by lawmakers from the ruling Labor Party. More than 100 Labor Party MPs publicly opposed the plan, which included a £5 billion a year cut from the growing welfare budget.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3745, SL 1.3665, TP 1.3845

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