USDJPY: SELL 144.25, SL 144.95, TP 142.50 | 30 June 2025

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Core PCE Price Index

17:00 EET. USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment

USDJPY:

The Japanese yen (JPY) weakened during the Asian session on Friday, reacting to data showing a sharp slowdown in consumer inflation in Tokyo in June. In addition, retail sales in Japan rose for the 38th consecutive month, albeit at the slowest pace since February. This comes amid expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may delay a rate hike until Q1 2026, which, along with optimistic market sentiment, is a key factor undermining the safe-haven yen. In addition, uncertainty over the impact of US tariffs on Japan's economy was another factor behind the yen's relative decline on the last day of the week.

However, investors seem convinced that the Bank of Japan will continue on its course of normalizing monetary policy as Japan's inflation rate continues to exceed its 2% annual target. This is a significant divergence compared to other major central banks leaning towards a softer approach and could limit losses for the low-yielding Yen. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, is struggling near a three-and-a-half year low amid concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and bets that the US central bank could resume its rate-cutting cycle as early as next month. This is helping to limit gains in the USD/JPY pair, which continues to post heavy weekly losses.

Trade recommendation: SELL 144.25, SL 144.95, TP 142.50

Up to $20 for each lot in real money - get a guaranteed income by connecting Cashback promotion!