EURUSD: BUY 1.1560, SL 1.1520, TP 1.1610 | 18 June 2025

An event to watch out for today:

15:30 EET. USD - Retail sales

EURUSD:

The EUR/USD exchange rate has remained stable for the second session in a row, trading at around 1.1560 during Tuesday's Asian session. The pair remains near 1.1631, its highest level since October 2021, reached on June 12. The euro (EUR) is supported by improved investor sentiment amid easing concerns about escalating tensions between Israel and Iran.

According to Reuters, Iran has approached several countries, including Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, asking them to persuade US President Donald Trump to use his influence on Israel to bring about an immediate ceasefire. G7 leaders issued a statement saying, “We have always made clear that Iran can never have nuclear weapons.” They stressed that resolving the crisis could lead to a broader de-escalation of hostilities in the region.

The euro is also gaining support against other currencies due to differences in the policies of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The probability of an ECB rate cut in September has fallen from 60% to 50%, and markets predict that the deposit rate will be 1.79% by the end of 2025. ECB board member Joachim Nagel supported maintaining policy flexibility, citing the complex global situation.

Meanwhile, traders expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday. Investors will focus on updated economic forecasts and the dot plot, as markets continue to price in the possibility of a rate cut as early as September.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1560, SL 1.1520, TP 1.1610

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